France has become the first NATO country to send its troops to Ukraine to fight the Russian military forces. This decision is a NATO decision, i.e., a decision involving the invocation of NATO’s Article 5. Yet, this is a significant development, which brings the possibility of a pan-European war closer to becoming an ultimate reality. The question, however, is why France took such a dangerous step that not even the US has. Its answer lies not in France’s sympathy with Ukraine and/or the possibility of Russia winning against NATO and establishing its domination in Europe. The answer to this step lies in how Russia is destroying the remnants of the French empire in Africa. France is, therefore, especially poised to inflict some damage on Russia. It cannot fight the Russians directly in Africa, but Paris does want to utilise the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine to ‘settle’ the score in some ways. This logic is pretty evident from the type of soldiers France has sent to Ukraine. In short, these are not regular French troops, composed of French nationals/citizens.
The troops France has sent to Ukraine are from its Foreign Legion, i.e., an elite corps of the French Army consisting entirely of foreigners willing to serve in the French Army. Until recently, this Legion had a significant presence in parts of Africa, keeping the French post-colonial establishment intact.
In October 2023, however, France faced a setback in Niger. It was asked to pack its troops and leave. Before Niger, French forces were also forced out of Mali and Burkina Faso after their militaries seized power and decided to break with their former coloniser. From Niger, France has already withdrawn its 1500 troops. More importantly, as media reports indicate, military bases previously occupied by French troops are now being put under Russian troops, including the Wagner Group. In Burkina Faso, the new regime expelled French troops and hailed its partnership with Russia as the dawn of a new era.
These developments are crucial – not only for France but also for the West. By displacing traditional French spaces of domination and putting itself in those spaces, Moscow is consolidating its position in Africa as part of its overall strategy to consolidate the Global South and push for a new, alternative, and multipolar world order that is not singularity-dominated by the West. While this is happening, for France, what matters – and what is clearly humiliating – is how it has been kicked out of a region that was its backyard for decades.
Niger was particularly important. It has been a key supplier of Uranium to France, which gets almost 70 per cent of its electricity from nuclear power plants. With France, not able to directly control the outflow of Uranium from Niger anymore, its domestic production is standing already on a slippery slope. France, therefore, has decided to send its troops to Ukraine to deter Russia from taking any steps that might disrupt the supply of Uranium.
But will this strategy work? Most of the policymakers in the West tend to blame Russian ascendance in terms of Moscow’s “conspiracy” against France in Africa. But this is not entirely true. Decades of French domination in this region have also paved the way for nationalist sentiments to emerge and grow, resulting in anti-French and anti-West attitudes to shape the domestic political landscape. If these sentiments continue to grow – which would clearly benefit Russia – this might also see a change in domestic preferences for trade with France. Could, then, Russia be blamed for any shortages in the supply of Uranium and any subsequent problems in the production and supply of electricity?
These domestic anti-French sentiments have genuine grounds that the West, including France, do not seem to recognise. For instance, French troops in Africa’s Sahel region were supposed to provide security from and eliminate militant groups. Even though some of these troops have been in active deployment for as long as 2009, armed groups remain powerful. Now, this failure can hardly be attributed to any external power, let alone Russia. Still, the subsequent growing dissatisfaction and disaffection with French troops has directly translated into a region-wide preference for Russia. This is despite the fact that Russia is not a big economic player in Africa. While China is a much bigger economic player in Africa, African states understand that China doesn’t have a policy of active military deployment in countries to maintain peace and/or fight conflicts. For Russia, which is a smaller economic player in Africa, offering military services is a preferred route to deepen its footprint.
Therefore, as opposed to making strictly economic contracts, Russia has already concluded, if media reports are true, military-to-military cooperation with at least 43 countries in the region. This is in addition to the fact that Russia is actively seeking agreement to establish new military bases in the region too.
What seems to be clear is that a Russia-China partnership is emerging in Africa, where China is managing the economic side of this partnership and Russia is positioning itself as a security guarantor – a role that Moscow played very successfully in Syria by defeating Washington’s “regime change” plan. For most African countries, therefore, Russia is naturally a better option.
But France is trying to resist this in Ukraine by sending its troops. This deployment is unlikely to affect its position in Africa, but it can certainly contribute to making Europe a lot less secure region than it currently is. If Russian forces come into direct contact with French troops and casualties happen on either side, it could significantly escalate tensions. But NATO would still not be legally able to jump in, for the French troops would be attacked and killed outside of France because it is France that decided to send its troops rather than Russia foraying into the French territories and attacking them. Yet, the outcome will be a much more complicated scenario than what we have today.
Salman Rafi Sheikh, research-analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”